Overall Growth Trend
- In recent years, China’s heavy-duty truck export industry has shown a vigorous development trend, playing an increasingly important role in the global market.
- Since 2020, the export volume has been continuously climbing and breaking historical records. By 2024, export sales surged to a new high of 295,000 units.
Specific Export Data
- In 2020, China’s heavy-duty truck exports were only 61,000 units.
- In 2021, the export volume reached 114,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 87%.
- In 2022, it climbed to 175,000 units, an increase of 53%.
- In 2023, it achieved a major leap with 276,000 units exported, a growth of 58%.
- In 2024, it maintained a steady growth of 6.9%.
Driving Forces for Export Growth
- Demand along the “Belt and Road Initiative”:
- Countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and some Latin American countries have vigorous infrastructure construction, creating strong demand for engineering heavy-duty trucks.
- Energy development like oil and gas transportation in the Middle East also drives demand.
- After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western brands withdrew from the Russian market, and Chinese heavy-duty trucks filled the gap, with exports to Russia accounting for more than 30% in 2023.
Advantages of Chinese Heavy-Duty Trucks
- Accelerated globalization of new energy heavy-duty trucks:
- China has leading technical reserves in electric heavy-duty trucks and hydrogen energy heavy-duty trucks.
- Cost advantages from domestic large-scale production make them highly competitive in the international market.
- Improved competitiveness of local brands:
- Significant progress in intelligence and lightweighting, narrowing the gap with international brands.
- Product quality and performance improvement promotes export unit price from low-end to mid-to-high end.
- Improved overseas after-sales systems enhance customer stickiness.
2025 Export Forecasts
- Total sales volume of China’s heavy-duty truck industry is expected to reach 960,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 10%.
- Export volume is expected to reach 320,000 units, breaking the 300,000-unit mark for the first time.
Regional Export Growth Drivers
- Russia and Central Asia:
- Market share of Chinese heavy-duty trucks continues to rise due to geopolitics and Western brands’ withdrawal.
- Avtostat predicts that Chinese brands’ market share in Russia will exceed 60% in 2025, driving the region’s export share to more than 35%.
- Southeast Asia:
- With RCEP tariff reduction policy and infrastructure investment demand, average annual export growth rate is expected to reach 15%.
- Latin America and Africa:
- Mining industry drives significant demand growth for engineering heavy-duty trucks like dump trucks, due to increased copper mine investment in Chile and recovered mineral exports in South Africa.
- European market:
- EU’s “Fit for 55″ Act requires 30% emission reduction for heavy-duty vehicles by 2030, promoting electrification.
- Proportion of Chinese new energy heavy-duty trucks in European imports is expected to exceed 10%.
Vehicle Structure Transformation
- Transforming from “cost performance advantage of fuel vehicles” to “new energy technology output” strategy.
- Export volume of electric heavy-duty trucks is expected to reach 30,000-50,000 units in 2025, relying on the complete domestic lithium battery industry chain.
- Traditional fuel vehicles will consolidate cost advantages in infrastructure-driven markets to remain competitive.
Challenges in 2025
- Increasing trade barriers and compliance risks:
- EU carbon tariff may pressure traditional fuel heavy-duty truck exports.
- Some countries may raise import tariffs or set technical barriers.
- Fiercer international competition:
- European and American brands accelerate electrification layout.
- Asian brands like Hyundai and Tata compete for Southeast Asian market with low-price strategies.
- Prominent supply chain fluctuations:
- Some key components rely on imports, geopolitical conflicts may affect delivery cycles.
- RMB exchange rate fluctuations may weaken price advantages.
Future Outlook
- Despite challenges, China’s heavy-duty truck export industry has broad prospects with accumulated achievements and continuous innovation capabilities.
- Chinese enterprises are actively responding, striving to continue brilliant performance on the international stage and enhance influence and market share.
Post time: Jul-16-2025
