Truck industry market status and future development trend forecast analysis

With the end of the global epidemic blockade, the new retail industry has developed rapidly, at the same time, the overload of traffic regulation has been strengthened, the penetration rate of new standard products has increased, and the global logistics transport trucks have resumed growth. The global infrastructure industry is stable, the demand for the transportation of engineering raw materials sometimes rises and sometimes falls, and the global engineering class heavy trucks resume development.

Truck industry market status and future development trend forecast analysis

First, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, and the development prospects of the truck industry are broad

Trucks, also known as trucks, are generally referred to as trucks, which are mainly used to transport goods, and sometimes refer to cars that can tow other vehicles, belonging to the category of commercial vehicles. Trucks can be divided into micro, light, medium, heavy and super heavy trucks according to their carrying tonnage, of which light trucks and heavy trucks are the two main types of trucks overseas. In 1956, China’s first Automobile factory in Changchun, Jilin Province, produced the first domestic truck in New China – Jiefang CA10, which was also the first car in New China, opening the process of China’s automobile industry. At present, China’s car manufacturing process tends to mature, the product structure is gradually reasonable, the replacement is accelerating, Chinese cars began to enter the international market in large quantities, and the automobile industry has become one of the important pillar industries of China’s national economy.

The upstream of the truck industry is the raw materials and power raw materials required for the production of trucks, including steel, plastics, non-ferrous metals, rubber, etc., which constitute the frame, transmission, engine and other parts necessary for the operation of trucks. The truck carrying capacity is strong, the engine performance requirements are high, the diesel engine relative to the gasoline engine power is larger, the energy consumption rate is low, can meet the needs of truck transport goods, so the vast majority of trucks are diesel engines as a power source, but some light trucks also use gasoline, petroleum gas or natural gas. The middle reaches are truck complete vehicle manufacturers, and China’s famous independent truck manufacturers include China First Automobile Group, China Heavy Duty Automobile Group, SHACMAN heavy truck Manufacturing, etc. Downstream for the transportation industry, including cargo transportation, coal transportation, express logistics transportation and so on.

The volume of the truck is relatively large, the production process is complex, and its main raw materials are steel and other high-quality metal materials with high hardness, high temperature resistance and corrosion resistance, so as to construct truck products with longer life and better performance. With the continuous growth of the macro economy, China’s manufacturing, construction and other industries continue to expand, promote the rapid expansion of steel production capacity, and become a global steel production and marketing power. In 2021-2022, affected by the “new coronavirus epidemic”, China’s overall economy has declined, construction projects have stalled, and the manufacturing industry has started to load low, so that the steel sales price has fallen “cliff”, and some private enterprises have been squeezed by the market, and the production efficiency has declined. In 2022, China’s steel production was 1.34 billion tons, an increase of 0.27%, and the growth rate declined. In 2023, in order to promote economic growth and improve the status quo of the industry, the state provides a number of subsidy policies to ensure the normal operation of basic industries, as of the third quarter of 2023, China’s steel production was 1.029 billion tons, an increase of 6.1%. Production of raw materials to recover growth, market supply and demand tend to balance, the overall price of products decline, help truck production costs to be effectively controlled, improve industrial economic efficiency, attract more capital investment, expand the industrial market share.

Compared with ordinary cars, trucks consume more energy and generate more power from diesel combustion, which helps to reduce energy consumption during truck operation. In recent years, affected by the international situation, some countries have frequent energy crises, international crude oil prices have been rising, and China’s automobile industry has developed rapidly, residential and industrial electricity consumption has continued to increase, diesel demand market expansion, and high external dependence. In order to alleviate the imbalance between diesel supply and demand, China has stepped up efforts to increase oil and gas resources storage and production and increase diesel supply. In 2022, China’s diesel production will reach 191 million tons, an increase of 17.9%. As of the third quarter of 2023, China’s diesel production was 162 million tons, an increase of 20.8% over the same period in 2022, the growth rate has increased, and the output is close to the annual diesel production in 2021. Despite the significant effect of diesel in increasing production, it still cannot meet the market demand. China’s diesel imports remain high. In order to implement the requirements of national sustainable development, the source of diesel oil has gradually shifted to renewable energy such as biodiesel and gradually expanded its market share. At the same time, China’s trucks have gradually entered the field of new energy, and have initially realized pure electric or petrol-electric hybrid heavy trucks into the market to meet the needs of the future market.

The growth rate of industrial development has slowed down, and new energy has gradually penetrated the truck industry

In recent years, China has vigorously promoted urbanization, the rise of e-commerce industry, goods need to be transported quickly and efficiently between different regions, driving up the demand of the Chinese truck market. The commodity market continues to heat up, the growth of power demand is obvious, and the development of the logistics and transportation industry is strongly driving the development of the truck industry, and in 2020, China’s truck production will be 4.239 million units, an increase of 20%. In 2022, the intensity of fixed asset investment is weakening, the domestic consumer market is weak, and the national automobile standards are updated, resulting in a decline in China’s road freight turnover speed and a decline in truck freight demand. In addition, affected by global inflation, the price of raw materials for product production continues to rise, the structural shortage of independently developed chips continues, enterprises are squeezed by the supply and marketing markets, and the development of the truck market is limited. In 2022, China’s truck production was 2.453 million units, down 33.1% year on year. With the end of the national epidemic lockdown, the new retail industry has developed rapidly, at the same time, the overload of traffic regulation has been strengthened, the penetration rate of new standard products has increased, and China’s logistics transport trucks have resumed growth. However, the slump in the infrastructure industry and the decline in demand for the transportation of engineering raw materials have limited the recovery and development of China’s engineering heavy trucks. As of the third quarter of 2023, China’s truck production was 2.453 million units, up 14.3% from the same period in 2022.

The overall development of the automobile industry promotes China’s economic growth, while accelerating the deterioration of the ecological environment in China, and the air quality in economically developed areas continues to decline, posing a threat to the health of residents. In order to achieve the harmonious coexistence of man and nature, China has implemented the “double carbon” strategy, by adjusting the energy structure, using clean energy instead of disposable energy, vigorously developing low-carbon economy, and getting rid of China’s economic development dependence on imported fossil energy, thus, new energy trucks have become the biggest bright spot in the automobile market. In 2022, China’s new energy truck sales increased by 103% year-on-year to 99,494 units; From January to April 2023, according to the statistics of the China Automobile Circulation Association, the sales volume of new energy trucks in China was 24,107, an increase of 8% over the same period in 2022. From the perspective of new energy truck types, China’s new energy micro cards and light trucks developed earlier, and heavy trucks developed faster. The rise of urban moving and stall economy has increased the demand for micro cards and light trucks, and new energy light trucks such as electric and hybrid trucks are more affordable than traditional trucks, further promoting the penetration rate of new energy light trucks. As of the third quarter of 2023, the sales volume of new energy light trucks in China was 26,226 units, an increase of 50.42%. With the gradual improvement of new energy utilization efficiency, the “vehicle-electric separation” power change mode facilitates the transportation process, reduces fuel consumption costs, and promotes the market sales of high-tech energy heavy trucks to a certain extent. As of the third quarter of 2023, China’s new energy heavy truck sales increased 29.73% year-on-year to 20,127 units, and the gap with new energy light trucks gradually narrowed.

The development of the freight market continues to improve, and the truck industry is moving toward intelligence

In 2023, China’s transport economy will continue to recover steadily, with an obvious momentum of improvement in the third quarter. The cross-regional flow of people has exceeded the level of the same period before the epidemic, the freight volume and port cargo throughput have maintained rapid growth, and the scale of investment in transport fixed assets has remained high, providing transport support for effectively improving China’s economy. As of the third quarter of 2023, China’s cargo transport volume was 40.283 billion tons, an increase of 7.1% over the same period in 2022. Among them, road transport is China’s traditional mode of transport, compared with railway transport, road transport cost is relatively low, and the most extensive coverage, is the main mode of land transport in China. In the first three quarters of 2023, China’s road cargo transport volume was 29.744 billion tons, accounting for 73.84% of the total transport volume, an increase of 7.4%. At present, the development of economic globalization is in a boom, the scale of cross-border transport market continues to expand, at the same time, China’s highway, national road, provincial road construction process is accelerating, the Internet of things, digital technology into the construction of smart roads, to facilitate the development of China’s freight market, the demand for trucks continues to increase.

The emergence of new technologies and innovative applications are changing the landscape of the freight market, with emerging technologies such as autonomous driving technology, the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence enabling trucking, significantly improving transportation efficiency and safety, and reducing operating costs. With fierce competition on the auto track and slow industrial development process, leading enterprises in the industry have begun to lay out strategies such as autonomous driving and unmanned driving to enhance differentiated competitiveness. According to market research firm Countpoint, the global driverless car market reached $9.85 billion in 2019, and it is expected that by 2025, the global driverless car market will reach $55.6 billion. As early as the beginning of the 21st century, many companies around the world launched the initial form of driverless cars, and applied the products to multiple application scenarios such as traffic jams, accident rehearsal, and complex sections. Driverless cars analyze the road conditions through the on-board sensing system, use cloud computing to plan routes, and use artificial intelligence to control the vehicle to reach the destination, which is a disruptive innovation technology in the automotive industry.

In recent years, SHACMAN heavy truck manufacturing, FAW Jiefang, Sany Heavy Industry and other leading enterprises continue to make efforts in the field of intelligent trucks with technical advantages, and the inertia of vehicles in the process of truck transportation is large, the buffer time is longer, the intelligent technology process is higher, and the operation is more difficult. According to incomplete statistics, China has landed more than 50 mining driverless projects, covering non-coal mines, metal mines and other scenarios, and operating more than 300 vehicles. Driverless truck transportation in mining areas effectively improves the efficiency of mining operations and ensures the safety of mining personnel, and the penetration rate of driverless technology in the truck industry will be further improved in the future, promoting the high-quality development of the industry.

Post time: Oct-12-2023